Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2778 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:28 → MSY 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5689 ORD 14:08 → MSY 16:32 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:28	MSY 10:00	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1532 United	ORD 11:05	MSY 13:40	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:49	MSY 11:18	16%	3%	0.9%	86%
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:08	MSY 16:32	21%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON