Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3526 at 11:56, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3526 Republic	ORD 11:56	MYR 15:15	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 30m	99%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 03m Charlotte	CLT 10:13 → MYR 11:23AA 2431	5h 16m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 47m	99%	81%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	2h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	7h 02m	97%	79%
American Details →	ORD 09:00 → CLT 11:59AA 2080	3h 52m Charlotte	CLT 15:51 → MYR 17:01AA 2943	7h 01m	99%	74%
American Details →	ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:20AA 1409	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 20:03 → MYR 21:13AA 1085	6h 52m	94%	72%
American Details →	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	1h 25m Philadelphia	PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	5h 47m	87%	68%
United Details →	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	1h 38m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	93%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON