Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	3h 07m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	9h 29m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:58 → SEA 08:22AS 587	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03AS 533	9h 05m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	7h 11m	67%	65%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	59m Seattle	SEA 16:41 → OAK 18:42AS 1328	7h 41m	74%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON