Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 4037 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4037 ORD 09:49 → OKC 12:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6493 ORD 18:06 → OKC 20:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4037 Envoy	ORD 09:49	OKC 12:02	14%	4%	1.1%	no record
OO 414 SkyWest	ORD 09:18	OKC 11:35	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:54	OKC 14:07	19%	8%	1.1%	64%
OO 5363 SkyWest	ORD 16:06	OKC 18:29	22%	11%	1.5%	no record
OO 435 SkyWest	ORD 13:32	OKC 15:49	22%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 6481 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:16	OKC 18:29	27%	12%	1.5%	62%
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:06	OKC 20:19	27%	12%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON