Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1778 ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2207 ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:06	OMA 09:39	11%	2%	1.0%	74%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 10:05	OMA 11:38	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 10:29	OMA 12:08	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	15%	6%	0.6%	78%
MQ 3712 Envoy	ORD 17:37	OMA 19:10	17%	4%	1.5%	no record
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 17:49	OMA 19:27	19%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	19%	8%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON