tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 47m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 6h 27m 90% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 08m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956 9h 10m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635 9h 38m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 1h 47m Phoenix PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661 7h 04m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 10m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 53m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 8h 02m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:05 → SEA 10:24AS 583 1h 04m Seattle SEA 11:28 → ONT 14:01AS 571 7h 56m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON