Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4448 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day YX 4448 ORD 08:13 → ORF 11:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4164 ORD 14:52 → ORF 18:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4448 Republic	ORD 08:13	ORF 11:42	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 3664 Republic	ORD 08:47	ORF 12:16	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 12:16	ORF 15:41	15%	5%	0.8%	83%
YX 3607 Republic	ORD 18:19	ORF 21:51	19%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:52	ORF 18:16	23%	5%	1.8%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON