Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2300 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2300 ORD 07:00 → PDX 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1818 ORD 17:14 → PDX 19:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2300 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	PDX 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 751 United	ORD 08:51	PDX 11:24	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1713 American	ORD 08:20	PDX 11:01	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2243 United	ORD 20:12	PDX 22:47	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1554 United Flight history →	ORD 13:26	PDX 15:56	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 325 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:12	PDX 16:47	19%	4%	0.8%	72%
UA 1677 United Flight history →	ORD 16:15	PDX 18:47	19%	7%	0.6%	57%
AA 1818 American Flight history →	ORD 17:14	PDX 19:55	21%	7%	0.9%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 25m	89%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON