Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2970 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2970 ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1848 ORD 17:07 → PHL 20:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2970 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHL 08:05	7%	2%	1.7%	90%
UA 2856 United	ORD 07:23	PHL 10:30	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 471 American Flight history →	ORD 06:28	PHL 09:48	10%	3%	1.2%	80%
UA 729 United Flight history →	ORD 09:34	PHL 12:48	12%	5%	0.7%	92%
AA 1725 American	ORD 08:47	PHL 12:08	16%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 2182 United Flight history →	ORD 11:33	PHL 14:47	16%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 1743 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	PHL 14:54	19%	6%	1.0%	74%
F9 2112 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:38	PHL 11:00	21%	6%	1.9%	62%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	PHL 17:52	23%	10%	0.7%	69%
AA 532 American Flight history →	ORD 19:37	PHL 22:57	24%	9%	1.1%	62%
AA 830 American	ORD 13:14	PHL 16:31	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ORD 16:00	PHL 19:14	27%	9%	0.7%	69%
AA 597 American	ORD 17:57	PHL 21:28	27%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	27%	9%	0.7%	61%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	ORD 15:02	PHL 18:18	28%	11%	1.3%	71%
AA 1393 American	ORD 16:02	PHL 19:18	30%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHL 20:25	30%	9%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON