Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2989 at 04:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2989 ORD 04:56 → PHX 06:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1767 ORD 18:31 → PHX 20:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2989 American	ORD 04:56	PHX 06:54	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2795 United	ORD 07:23	PHX 09:17	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 09:02	PHX 11:03	15%	5%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 07:25	PHX 09:09	15%	4%	0.9%	86%
UA 2164 United Flight history →	ORD 11:01	PHX 12:49	17%	6%	0.6%	87%
AA 2192 American	ORD 10:36	PHX 12:27	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1640 American Flight history →	ORD 13:56	PHX 15:57	21%	9%	0.9%	81%
UA 1706 United	ORD 13:57	PHX 15:43	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2015 United	ORD 15:40	PHX 17:25	22%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 16:02	PHX 17:53	23%	9%	0.6%	79%
AA 3137 American Flight history →	ORD 17:14	PHX 19:19	24%	9%	1.0%	63%
AA 2554 American Flight history →	ORD 19:21	PHX 21:05	26%	8%	0.9%	79%
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	26%	9%	1.0%	70%
AA 1767 American	ORD 18:31	PHX 20:20	28%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON