Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3656 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 06:00 → PIT 08:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1051 ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 06:00	PIT 08:41	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:20	PIT 11:07	9%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 4467 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:43	PIT 12:24	9%	2%	0.9%	82%
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:40	PIT 15:23	11%	3%	0.9%	89%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:30	PIT 13:07	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2675 American	ORD 12:48	PIT 15:36	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	21%	9%	0.7%	72%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	24%	9%	0.6%	64%
AA 2671 American	ORD 17:25	PIT 20:05	28%	12%	1.2%	no record
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:14	PIT 18:49	29%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 1051 American	ORD 18:55	PIT 21:35	33%	13%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON