tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2492 at 11:06, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2492 United ORD 11:06 PNS 13:36 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 21m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 5h 28m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 26m Denver DEN 11:21 → PNS 15:21UA 1891 8h 16m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 5h 43m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 6h 20m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 10:45 → PNS 11:32AA 2476 6h 25m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 3h 44m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 31m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON