Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1807 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1807 ORD 07:26 → PVD 10:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5691 ORD 18:14 → PVD 21:39 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1807 United	ORD 07:26	PVD 10:57	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4798 Republic	ORD 09:26	PVD 12:58	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	ORD 13:18	PVD 16:49	12%	5%	2.0%	no record
OO 5676 SkyWest	ORD 11:04	PVD 14:30	14%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1293 American Flight history →	ORD 19:14	PVD 22:43	19%	7%	1.2%	63%
OO 5691 SkyWest	ORD 18:14	PVD 21:39	21%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON