Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5232 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day OO 5232 ORD 07:19 → PWM 11:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1401 ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 07:19	PWM 11:07	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:06	PWM 16:41	16%	4%	1.5%	92%
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	17%	5%	0.6%	86%
YX 3662 Republic	ORD 15:01	PWM 18:35	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 2717 American	ORD 09:30	PWM 13:03	20%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1401 United Flight history →	ORD 18:08	PWM 21:41	24%	10%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON