Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4354 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4354 ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2167 ORD 18:40 → RDU 21:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:18	RDU 11:38	8%	2%	0.9%	90%
YX 3600 Republic	ORD 09:06	RDU 12:20	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	12%	5%	0.6%	84%
OO 5764 SkyWest	ORD 07:28	RDU 10:39	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1142 United	ORD 12:51	RDU 16:02	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2732 American	ORD 10:56	RDU 14:05	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:05	RDU 19:19	18%	6%	1.5%	65%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 16:01	RDU 19:11	20%	8%	0.7%	79%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	RDU 21:37	24%	9%	0.7%	53%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	ORD 14:41	RDU 17:50	31%	10%	1.3%	74%
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 18:40	RDU 21:49	33%	11%	1.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON