Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3532 at 10:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 3532 ORD 10:31 → RIC 13:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1288 ORD 19:10 → RIC 22:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3532 Republic	ORD 10:31	RIC 13:44	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2737 American	ORD 09:05	RIC 12:19	13%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 3523 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:30	RIC 17:49	14%	5%	1.1%	79%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	RIC 21:27	22%	11%	0.9%	66%
OO 6249 SkyWest	ORD 16:39	RIC 19:46	23%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 1288 American	ORD 19:10	RIC 22:22	25%	8%	1.5%	no record
UA 4427 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	RIC 11:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON