Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1993 at 10:50, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1993 United	ORD 10:50	RNO 13:02	21%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 38m Denver	DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167	8h 39m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	2h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	8h 56m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 24m	93%	84%
United Details →	ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361	3h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 13:07 → RNO 14:43UA 1544	9h 43m	100%	83%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911	7h 11m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:57 → RNO 21:42DL 391	9h 58m	98%	77%
American Details →	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	1h 13m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:27AA 1437	7h 02m	89%	75%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → RNO 13:17AA 324	9h 13m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON