Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4104 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4104 ORD 08:07 → ROC 10:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 1568 ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:07	ROC 10:50	11%	2%	1.1%	81%
UA 5919 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	ROC 09:47	12%	5%	1.5%	83%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ROC 16:45	23%	7%	0.8%	71%
OO 6316 SkyWest	ORD 17:04	ROC 19:49	27%	8%	2.2%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	ROC 21:22	27%	9%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON