Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1740 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1740 ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3238 ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1740 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	RSW 11:14	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 1036 United Flight history →	ORD 09:02	RSW 13:01	14%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	ORD 06:49	RSW 10:46	15%	3%	1.4%	47%
UA 2137 United	ORD 10:51	RSW 14:48	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2618 United Flight history →	ORD 16:26	RSW 20:34	21%	10%	0.9%	71%
AA 2561 American Flight history →	ORD 12:13	RSW 16:10	21%	8%	1.5%	75%
AA 3238 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	RSW 23:29	25%	11%	2.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON