Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2428 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2428 ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1543 ORD 15:09 → SAN 17:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2428 United Flight history →	ORD 07:01	SAN 09:29	12%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 3772 United	ORD 06:44	SAN 09:25	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1470 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:20	SAN 08:54	15%	3%	1.2%	75%
UA 3771 United	ORD 07:53	SAN 10:25	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2343 American Flight history →	ORD 06:41	SAN 08:55	17%	3%	0.8%	84%
UA 660 United Flight history →	ORD 08:46	SAN 11:21	17%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 559 United	ORD 13:30	SAN 15:47	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2138 United	ORD 16:33	SAN 19:05	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 3134 American Flight history →	ORD 09:58	SAN 12:11	26%	6%	0.8%	68%
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:20	SAN 16:59	26%	7%	1.1%	70%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	ORD 19:09	SAN 21:53	26%	8%	1.0%	70%
AA 1543 American Flight history →	ORD 15:09	SAN 17:19	30%	9%	0.9%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	6h 05m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON