Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 490 ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1394 ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 490 United Flight history →	ORD 09:25	SAT 12:29	13%	6%	0.6%	86%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:59	SAT 17:59	17%	6%	1.2%	80%
UA 1252 United	ORD 13:30	SAT 16:22	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2845 American	ORD 11:31	SAT 14:35	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1394 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SAT 22:57	22%	10%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON