tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via LAX, leaving 08:48, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 08:45 SBA 11:25 18% 5% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:04 → SBA 11:31AA 1822 8h 31m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 16m Los Angeles LAX 12:49 → SBA 13:45UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest 8h 45m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 44m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 9h 02m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 1h 01m Portland PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 7h 52m 82% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 42m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 57m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928 6h 31m 83% 69%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 9h 47m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:20 → SAN 08:54AS 1470 3h 55m San Diego SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon 9h 42m 99% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON