Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3672 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 3672 ORD 06:56 → SDF 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 ORD 15:02 → SDF 17:26 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3672 Republic	ORD 06:56	SDF 09:25	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	ORD 07:13	SDF 09:32	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 11:14	SDF 13:33	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	16%	6%	1.2%	77%
OO 5692 SkyWest	ORD 10:44	SDF 13:08	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:38	SDF 19:07	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	ORD 15:02	SDF 17:26	26%	13%	1.5%	no record
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON