Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2041 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2041 ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 583 ORD 08:05 → SEA 10:24 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	11%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	SEA 09:40	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 05:58	SEA 08:22	14%	2%	1.0%	64%
UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	17%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 1476 American	ORD 12:10	SEA 15:07	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	21%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	21%	7%	0.6%	73%
AA 2966 American	ORD 10:03	SEA 12:39	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1205 Delta	ORD 17:48	SEA 20:18	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	24%	5%	0.7%	65%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 07:47	SEA 10:22	24%	4%	0.8%	44%
AS 579 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 13:01	SEA 15:42	25%	4%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AA 2392 American	ORD 18:41	SEA 21:13	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	29%	6%	0.8%	68%
AS 337 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 17:42	SEA 20:21	29%	6%	0.9%	49%
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 08:05	SEA 10:24	37%	4%	0.9%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON