Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1253 ORD 15:18 → SFO 17:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	13%	5%	0.7%	87%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:56	SFO 09:54	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	22%	10%	0.6%	63%
AA 1851 American	ORD 09:46	SFO 12:22	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 342 United	ORD 08:40	SFO 11:13	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:59	SFO 15:46	25%	11%	0.6%	79%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	26%	12%	0.7%	66%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	27%	12%	0.6%	74%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:36	SFO 11:10	27%	8%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:11	SFO 22:14	29%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:05	SFO 18:34	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	32%	12%	0.7%	48%
UA 649 United	ORD 18:25	SFO 20:51	32%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 2817 American	ORD 13:32	SFO 16:06	32%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:15	SFO 19:47	32%	11%	1.0%	57%
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	33%	13%	1.0%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	95%	76%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 20m	87%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON