Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5525 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 5525 ORD 09:15 → SGF 11:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4739 ORD 16:04 → SGF 17:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5525 SkyWest	ORD 09:15	SGF 11:10	13%	6%	1.1%	no record
MQ 3584 Envoy	ORD 08:16	SGF 09:52	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	ORD 13:27	SGF 15:03	16%	4%	2.1%	no record
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:29	SGF 19:17	17%	7%	1.9%	72%
OO 5664 SkyWest	ORD 12:49	SGF 14:28	19%	8%	1.2%	no record
OO 4739 SkyWest	ORD 16:04	SGF 17:43	28%	12%	1.8%	no record
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	SGF 23:27	13%	7%	11.5%	87%
UA 4529 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:50	SGF 10:44	26%	14%	0.7%	74%
UA 4436 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:32	28%	13%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON