Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 307 United	ORD 09:41	SJC 12:25	13%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 19m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SJC 09:40UA 2031	6h 40m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	8h 43m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 00m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 27m	97%	85%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 48m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256	9h 09m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 32m	97%	85%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:25 → SJC 11:18AA 2046	8h 18m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 50m	93%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 15:55 → MSP 17:40DL 1533	50m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087	6h 40m	72%	60%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	50m Seattle	SEA 16:32 → SJC 18:36AS 521	7h 35m	68%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON