Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2231 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2231 ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 1446 ORD 14:09 → SLC 16:26 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 08:55	SLC 11:39	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 3129 American	ORD 08:30	SLC 11:19	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	ORD 10:20	SLC 12:51	18%	4%	0.8%	70%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	18%	5%	0.6%	77%
DL 1448 Delta	ORD 19:46	SLC 22:02	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1873 American	ORD 13:06	SLC 15:37	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 1446 Delta	ORD 14:09	SLC 16:26	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON