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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2145 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2145 ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 1519 ORD 16:33 → SMF 19:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2145 United Flight history → ORD 09:04 SMF 11:51 11% 5% 0.6% 80%
AA 1906 American ORD 11:54 SMF 14:22 18% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 1519 United ORD 16:33 SMF 19:10 21% 9% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 1h 19m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 6h 35m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 31m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:55 → MSP 17:40DL 1533 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 18:45 → SMF 20:35DL 574 6h 40m 81% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON