Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3680 Republic	ORD 07:25	SRQ 11:34	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2287 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	SRQ 15:12	15%	5%	0.9%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 14m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	6h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 32m	99%	88%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452	6h 07m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09DL 2767	1h 19m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	6h 33m	96%	77%
American Details →	ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:20AA 1409	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604	7h 04m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON