Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2000 ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1044 United	ORD 11:01	STL 12:35	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2818 American	ORD 08:53	STL 10:20	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1625 United	ORD 20:17	STL 21:44	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
YX 4645 Republic	ORD 15:15	STL 16:43	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:46	STL 13:08	18%	5%	1.1%	67%
OO 5696 SkyWest	ORD 12:49	STL 14:12	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 2000 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	STL 15:46	20%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 4581 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:55	STL 14:23	20%	6%	4.2%	80%
UA 4613 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 09:00	STL 10:34	25%	13%	1.7%	75%
UA 4576 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	STL 23:29	30%	17%	6.5%	70%
UA 4518 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:45	STL 18:13	33%	18%	3.5%	67%
UA 4416 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:59	STL 17:27	37%	19%	3.9%	63%
UA 4412 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	STL 19:23	44%	22%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON