Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4648 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day YX 4648 ORD 09:25 → SYR 12:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2481 ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4648 Republic	ORD 09:25	SYR 12:27	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 5937 SkyWest	ORD 08:03	SYR 11:04	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	ORD 13:34	SYR 16:24	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 2343 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	SYR 16:48	21%	8%	0.8%	81%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SYR 21:09	22%	10%	0.8%	68%
UA 4541 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	SYR 10:48	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON