Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2326 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2326 ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1101 ORD 14:47 → TPA 18:32 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2326 United Flight history →	ORD 07:31	TPA 11:24	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	ORD 11:19	TPA 15:12	17%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2920 American Flight history →	ORD 09:05	TPA 12:56	17%	4%	0.8%	79%
UA 2244 United	ORD 12:59	TPA 16:44	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1057 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	TPA 18:24	21%	7%	0.7%	76%
AA 353 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	TPA 00:19	23%	8%	1.1%	63%
UA 1393 United Flight history →	ORD 16:42	TPA 20:28	27%	9%	0.7%	62%
AA 1101 American Flight history →	ORD 14:47	TPA 18:32	30%	9%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON