Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4155 ORD 08:16 → TUL 10:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest MQ 3646 ORD 16:53 → TUL 18:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:16	TUL 10:12	15%	2%	1.2%	86%
UA 5795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	TUL 11:03	15%	4%	0.6%	80%
MQ 4098 Envoy	ORD 13:25	TUL 15:21	18%	4%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3646 Envoy	ORD 16:53	TUL 18:49	19%	5%	1.7%	no record
UA 4482 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	TUL 17:42	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON