Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Tucson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2537 American Flight history →	ORD 09:53	TUS 11:58	20%	5%	0.7%	79%
OO 5928 SkyWest	ORD 12:45	TUS 14:48	22%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937	9h 05m	99%	88%
United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → TUS 08:58UA 1511	5h 58m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251	8h 27m	98%	84%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 48m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	8h 32m	100%	83%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → TUS 11:24AA 2187	8h 24m	99%	81%
United Details →	ORD 14:06 → IAH 16:47UA 2062	3h 13m Houston	IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa	8h 36m	95%	79%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926	8h 22m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:58 → SEA 08:22AS 587	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648	9h 33m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	50m Houston	IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa	6h 37m	69%	57%
United Details →	ORD 12:59 → SFO 15:46UA 1097	50m San Francisco	SFO 16:36 → TUS 18:53UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest	7h 54m	65%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON