Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5726 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day OO 5726 ORD 07:38 → TVC 09:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6339 ORD 16:32 → TVC 18:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5726 SkyWest	ORD 07:38	TVC 09:51	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3500 Republic	ORD 16:05	TVC 18:24	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	ORD 08:04	TVC 10:17	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:56	TVC 14:09	19%	6%	0.7%	67%
OO 5563 SkyWest	ORD 10:52	TVC 13:05	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4906 SkyWest	ORD 19:34	TVC 21:47	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 5714 SkyWest	ORD 18:32	TVC 20:47	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 5704 SkyWest	ORD 13:58	TVC 16:11	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 6339 SkyWest	ORD 16:32	TVC 18:45	26%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON