Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2035 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2035 ORD 07:13 → TYS 10:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5719 ORD 14:14 → TYS 16:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2035 United	ORD 07:13	TYS 10:07	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	ORD 08:19	TYS 10:57	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	ORD 17:15	TYS 20:05	19%	9%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 13:26	TYS 16:04	20%	5%	1.6%	no record
UA 795 United	ORD 18:03	TYS 20:45	20%	10%	0.9%	no record
OO 5719 SkyWest	ORD 14:14	TYS 16:56	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 4551 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	TYS 09:43	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON