tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 59m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 7h 05m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 16m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 6h 28m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 11:02 → DFW 13:30AA 1106 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 7h 36m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 6h 13m 91% 68%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:06 → DFW 17:36AA 2429 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:06 → VPS 21:11AA 1201 6h 05m 84% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON