Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3595 ORD 07:02 → XNA 08:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G7 4399 ORD 16:18 → XNA 18:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:02	XNA 08:56	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:05	XNA 21:01	9%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:40	XNA 13:26	10%	3%	0.7%	78%
MQ 3660 Envoy	ORD 17:08	XNA 18:55	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
G7 4498 GoJet	ORD 08:41	XNA 10:29	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
G7 4601 GoJet	ORD 12:24	XNA 14:12	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4399 GoJet	ORD 16:18	XNA 18:10	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON