Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2966 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 2966 ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3071 ORF 12:10 → ATL 14:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2966 Delta Flight history →	ORF 05:15	ATL 06:54	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ORF 10:16	ATL 12:05	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1364 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:20	ATL 08:10	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1338 Delta Flight history →	ORF 08:00	ATL 09:49	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ORF 13:50	ATL 15:44	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ORF 12:33	ATL 14:18	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ORF 19:59	ATL 21:59	13%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ORF 16:55	ATL 18:46	14%	4%	0.6%	67%
F9 3071 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 12:10	ATL 14:08	19%	8%	1.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON