Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3317 at 17:51, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3317 Southwest	ORF 17:51	BNA 18:50	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069	4h 26m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 10m	100%	91%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 23m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 24m	99%	90%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130	3h 46m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295	6h 43m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	6h 10m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	6h 02m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 16:55 → ATL 18:46DL 1101	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	5h 49m	95%	84%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	3h 46m Charlotte	CLT 12:06 → BNA 12:38AA 2409	6h 52m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	5h 03m	71%	60%
American Details →	ORF 15:08 → DFW 17:29AA 2282	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076	6h 09m	70%	50%
Delta Details →	ORF 14:44 → LGA 16:21DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m New York	LGA 17:27 → BNA 19:19DL 5002 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	68%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON