Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5794 at 11:39 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 5794 Republic	ORF 11:39	BOS 13:31	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 1814 JetBlue Flight history →	ORF 19:32	BOS 21:19	39%	19%	1.0%	71%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 51m	97%	89%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	4h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 25m	98%	86%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 08:27 → BOS 10:51AA 1151	5h 27m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 55m	98%	85%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 40m	96%	82%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	3h 42m Washington	DCA 10:41 → BOS 12:25AA 1015	6h 25m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 47m	94%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 12:07 → JFK 13:44DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 14:30 → BOS 16:08DL 5595 · flown by Republic	4h 01m	59%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON