Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3130 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3130 ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2519 ORF 19:21 → CLT 20:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3130 American Flight history →	ORF 05:24	CLT 06:49	5%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 5036 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:46	CLT 08:20	11%	4%	1.1%	84%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	ORF 10:23	CLT 11:48	13%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 2200 American Flight history →	ORF 15:42	CLT 17:08	20%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 1211 American Flight history →	ORF 14:58	CLT 16:22	21%	5%	0.9%	90%worse than usual
AA 2651 American	ORF 17:18	CLT 18:43	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2519 American Flight history →	ORF 19:21	CLT 20:47	23%	7%	1.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON