Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5520 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 5520 ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5601 ORF 17:41 → DCA 18:46 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5520 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:00	DCA 06:59	7%	6%	1.2%	92%
AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 11:25	DCA 12:30	30%	11%	1.5%	70%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 17:41	DCA 18:46	37%	16%	1.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON