Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:16, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1729 Southwest	ORF 11:36	DEN 13:34	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2270 United Flight history →	ORF 08:00	DEN 10:00	14%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	3h 06m Dulles	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	8h 00m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 42m	99%	83%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 08:26 → DEN 10:03AA 1328	6h 39m	96%	82%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	3h 44m Philadelphia	PHL 11:24 → DEN 13:28AA 2082	9h 05m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	8h 53m	99%	81%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 10:51 → DEN 12:26AA 1662	7h 40m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON