Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2274 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2274 ORF 07:03 → DFW 09:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2288 ORF 19:00 → DFW 21:20 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2274 American Flight history →	ORF 07:03	DFW 09:28	11%	4%	1.0%	84%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	ORF 15:08	DFW 17:29	22%	9%	1.0%	62%
AA 2288 American Flight history →	ORF 19:00	DFW 21:20	25%	9%	1.2%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	46m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → DFW 08:54DL 839	4h 39m	88%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON