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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 5h 14m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 51m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 08:19 → EWR 10:18AA 1707 4h 54m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 01m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 22m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 3h 50m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697 5h 55m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883 5h 15m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 5h 08m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:08 → DFW 17:29AA 2282 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:15 → EWR 22:51AA 618 7h 43m 67% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON