Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1799 at 07:19, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1799 JetBlue Flight history →	ORF 07:19	FLL 09:42	14%	8%	1.1%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59DL 1094	4h 44m	97%	87%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130	1h 32m Charlotte	CLT 08:21 → FLL 10:30AA 1419	5h 06m	96%	86%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 06m Dulles	IAD 08:13 → FLL 11:09UA 1825	5h 04m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	6h 03m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	6h 27m	98%	81%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	1h 13m Washington	DCA 08:12 → FLL 11:09AA 1893	5h 09m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413	5h 25m	99%	80%
American Details →	ORF 06:46 → CLT 08:20AA 5036 · flown by PSA	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → FLL 12:57AA 2585	6h 11m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037	6h 23m	69%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON