Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1524 at 06:05, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1524 ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1524 United Flight history →	ORF 06:05	IAD 07:07	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 4023 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 15:00	IAD 16:09	14%	8%	1.6%	86%
UA 4810 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:59	IAD 21:13	21%	10%	5.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON