Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 59m	99%	87%
United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	5h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 33m	98%	84%
American Details →	ORF 05:24 → CLT 06:49AA 3130	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 08:19 → IAH 09:57AA 2445	5h 33m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:52DL 1223	6h 36m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:08DL 2327	7h 18m	98%	81%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	3h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 10:43 → IAH 13:07AA 836	7h 44m	97%	80%
American Details →	ORF 07:03 → DFW 09:28AA 2274	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → IAH 11:48AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	5h 45m	89%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 12:37 → DTW 14:43DL 4653 · flown by Endeavor	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → IAH 17:53DL 1718	6h 16m	71%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON